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一 |     　　8月份以来，国内焦炭价格呈现连续上行走势，累计最大涨幅已突破20%。    

    Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
China strongly deplores Japan's negative moves related to the Yasukuni war shrine, and has lodged serious protests against Japan, a Chinese Foreign Ministry (FM) spokesperson said in a statement on Saturday, in response to Japanese politicians paying respects to the Yasukuni war shrine, which honors Class-A war criminals, on the 81st anniversary of Japan's unconditional surrender in World War II.
On such a sensitive day, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sent a ritual offering to the notorious Yasukuni shrine, while Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and several senior executives of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) visited in person, prompting Chinese experts to warn that Japan's increasingly brazen moves signal a dangerous shift toward neo-militarism.
Takaichi made a "tamagushi" ritual offering to the notorious shrine using her private funds in her capacity as LDP president, Japan's Kyodo News reported Saturday, citing LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki. Takaichi did not visit the shrine in person. Koizumi, however, visited the notorious shrine Saturday morning. Hitoshi Kikawada, a member of Takaichi's Cabinet, also visited the shrine.
Meanwhile, Suzuki, LDP General Council Chairperson Haruko Arimura and Election Strategy Committee Chairperson Yasutoshi Nishimura visited the shrine together on Saturday, according to Kyodo News and the Xinhua News Agency. 
Japan's Mainichi Shimbun on Saturday described the collective August 15 visit by senior LDP executives as "unusual."
Chinese media including state broadcaster CCTV reported that it marked the first collective visit to the shrine by senior LDP executives.
Yasukuni Shrine, located in central Tokyo's Chiyoda Ward, honors 14 convicted Japanese Class-A war criminals from World War II. It has long been a source of diplomatic friction between Japan and its neighbors. For a long time, visits and ritual offerings made by Japanese officials to the controversial shrine have consistently sparked criticism and opposition both at home and abroad, hurting the feelings of the people of China, South Korea, and other countries and regions victimized by Japan's wartime aggression, according to Xinhua.
An affront to historical justice
"No pretext whatsoever can hide the Japanese politicians' true intention which is to change the verdict on the war criminals, cover up Japan's war crimes, distort the historical facts, and pave the way for accelerating remilitarization. This is an affront to historical justice, a challenge to the foundational norms of civilization, and a provocation against the postwar international order. Such behaviors have been firmly rejected by the overwhelming majority of the international community," the Chinese FM spokesperson's statement said on Saturday.
This year marks the 80th anniversary of the opening of the Tokyo Trials. To view and treat history correctly is an important prerequisite for Japan's postwar return to the international community, the political foundation for Japan's ties with neighboring countries, and more importantly, a key measure for Japan's commitment to peaceful development, the statement noted.  
"We urge the Japanese side to do serious soul-searching on its history of aggression, make a clean break with militarism, and earn trust from its Asian neighbors and the rest of the world with concrete actions," the spokesperson said.
Lü Chao, an expert on East Asian studies and a professor at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Saturday that attitudes toward the notorious Yasukuni shrine on this very day have long served as an important "touchstone" for the international community to judge whether Japanese political forces genuinely recognize the country's wartime aggression and responsibility. 
"What is particularly alarming this year is how openly these political signals are being sent," Lü said. "The combination of an offering by the prime minister, a visit by the sitting defense minister and a coordinated appearance by senior ruling-party executives means the issue can hardly be dismissed merely as individual acts of mourning."
Although Takaichi stayed away in person, Lü said the offering still clearly demonstrated her political attitude. "Not visiting personally does not fundamentally change the political nature of the gesture," Lü said, noting that diplomatic and domestic pressure may have affected the form Takaichi chose, but not necessarily her underlying position.
Particular attention required
"The collective actions of senior figures in the ruling party deserve particular attention," he said. "They raise the question of whether Japan's political establishment has truly developed a correct understanding of its aggression and wartime crimes."
Chinese military affairs expert Song Zhongping told the Global Times on Saturday that visits by Japanese conservative lawmakers and government officials to the notorious shrine are not new and should not be treated as an isolated development unique to the Takaichi administration.
Former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi repeatedly visited the shrine and went there as prime minister on August 15, 2006. Shinzo Abe visited as sitting prime minister in December 2013. Shinjiro Koizumi himself visited on August 15, 2025, when he was agriculture minister.  
"The important point is that this tendency has persisted within Japanese right-wing politics for decades," Song said. "What we are seeing now is not its sudden emergence, but its increasingly overt expression." 
Song further noted that the political significance of Koizumi's visit is amplified by his current position as defense minister. "A defense minister's understanding of wartime history cannot simply be regarded as a private attitude," he said. "It inevitably leads people to ask what kind of direction Japan's defense policy and Self-Defense Forces may take."
Such concern comes as the Takaichi government pushes to strengthen Japan's military capabilities and pursue constitutional revision.
Song stressed that Japan has already expanded defense spending, developed so-called counterstrike capabilities and eased restrictions on defense equipment transfers under the existing Constitution, meaning constitutional revision should not inaccurately be portrayed as a legal prerequisite for all such measures.
What deserves greater scrutiny, he said, is whether historical revisionism, constitutional revision and military expansion are increasingly reinforcing one another.
"The issue surrounding the notorious Yasukuni Shrine is not simply one of mourning," Song said. "When political forces refuse to squarely confront the history of aggression while simultaneously seeking greater military capabilities and fewer postwar restraints, neighboring countries have every reason to remain vigilant."
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　　8月24日下午收盘，国内期货市场焦炭主力合约报收2152.5元/吨，单日涨幅近3%，盘中最高达2185元/吨，月内最大涨幅超过22%。A股市场上，8月24日煤炭板块走势整体偏强。

二 | 截至下午收盘，Wind煤炭指数涨2.28%，个股中大有能源、上海能源、美锦能源悉数涨停，新集能源涨超8%、昊华能源涨超6%。　　现货市场上，据卓创资讯数据，7月份钢铁行业需求季节性转弱，终端负反馈加剧传导，焦炭价格阶段性回落，焦化厂、钢厂焦炭库存增至高位。但8月份焦煤供应恢复仍不及预期，在铁水产量止跌回升，终端需求趋于好转情况下，焦煤价格再次强势上涨，焦化厂亏损加剧，减产、检修情况增加，焦炭供需收紧，社会库存高位回落，焦炭供需基本面改善。

三 | 　　8月初焦炭价格第三轮提降落地，累计下调150元/吨至165元/吨，降幅8.27%。

四 | 随后由于原料端焦煤价格未降反升，导致焦化厂亏损加剧，开工意向明显下滑，焦炭供应收缩，库存高位回落。截至8月21日，山西吕梁S<1主焦煤市场均价收于2200元/吨，累计上涨325元/吨，涨幅17.33%，同比涨54.39%。　　“由于焦煤供应偏紧，市场采购积极，价格持续偏强，成本端强势拉涨，终端需求持续偏弱，多空博弈下，钢厂延迟接受焦炭首轮提涨。

五 | 8月24日起焦炭价格整体上调50元/吨至55元/吨。”卓创资讯分析师刘璐璐表示，随着焦煤涨幅扩大，入炉煤成本持续攀升，焦化厂亏损压力不断增加，山西顶装焦开工负荷多数降至6成至7成，捣固焦企开工负荷集中于8成，焦炭供应量明显收缩。而在需求端，煤焦货紧价高预期下，钢厂采购积极性明显提升，催货情况较多，投机贸易需求也有增加，钢厂焦炭库存小幅下滑。成本端，焦煤价格维持涨势，焦炭入炉煤成本仍在上涨，成本端支撑强劲。　　“焦煤供给刚性收缩，焦企深度亏损倒逼焦炭提涨，是本轮焦炭价格上行的根本原因。山西瘦主焦、低硫主焦核心产区安全检查持续从严，叠加零星安全事故扰动，大量停产矿井复产进度不及预期，部分矿井阶段性反复停产，炼焦精煤增量释放受限。

六 | ”上海钢联焦炭行业分析师张磊表示。　　刘璐璐给出的数据也显示，8月份焦化厂自主减产、检修情况不断增加，焦化整体开工负荷呈下滑趋势。截至8月20日，全国主流独立焦企开工负荷71.44%，较上月均值降3.6个百分点。根据卓创资讯调研了解，目前山西多数焦化厂限产20%—30%，整体开工负荷集中在7-—8成，部分顶装焦化厂开工负荷降至6成左右，焦炭供应收缩明显。最新焦化厂焦炭库存可用天数降至1.52天，较月初下降0.55天，降幅26.19%。　　对于焦炭后市，刘璐璐认为，山西停产焦煤矿井复产进程缓慢，焦煤供应紧张格局难有改善，价格易涨难跌，焦化厂开工负荷难有提升，焦炭供应增量难度较大；下游高炉检修有集中复产预期，钢材需求季节性好转，铁水产量将有明显回升，支撑焦炭消耗增加，焦炭供强需弱局面将逐渐扭转，供需明显收紧。在消耗增量、焦炭供应收缩情况下，钢厂增库难度较大，焦化厂前期积累库存将明显消化，焦炭整体社会库存下滑为主。基于9月份焦炭供需关系明显收紧，叠加原料成本端偏强预期，预计9月份焦炭价格偏强运行为主。　　张磊则认为，焦炭首轮提涨由焦煤供给收紧、焦企深度亏损共同驱动。当前焦炭供应边际收缩、焦企库存去化是直接推手；钢厂盈利偏弱压制提涨多轮落地空间。

七 | 首轮提涨落地存在博弈，中性预期有效落地1轮至2轮。后期需持续跟踪山西炼焦煤复产放量、蒙煤通关数据、高炉复产、检修节奏、钢材成交及钢厂利润修复情况。

八 | （文章来源：证券时报）。

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